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Can you Crack the Popeye Challenge?

 

Did Popeye Really Increase Spinach Consumption and Production?

 

 

How can we be sure that we are seeing real patterns in data and not merely seizing upon that which meets our biased prior expectations?

 

There is a widely accepted story that spinach growers in Crystal CityTexas erected a statue of Popeye in 1937 in recognition of the comic character’s creator E. Segar increasing spinach consumption in the USA by 33 per cent at a time when farmers were hard pressed.

 

It has long been noted that humans see patterns in data and attribute them to causes. Hence people see a man in the moon, or Kate Middleton's face on a jelly bean, and concoct conspiracies from random data. It is hypothesised that we are pattern seeing animals and that this pattern seeking was essential for human progress and survival (Shermer, 2007 p. xxiv). This is compounded by the fact that people have a tendency to try to prove their current hypothesis is correct by picking out only examples that confirm it, while ignoring all that do not (Sutherland, 2007. p. 99). Availability error (Sutherland 2007) may lead us to focus upon only spinach production data for 1936 – the year when Popeye was a box office smash in the cinema. Then there is the problem of Mertonian self-fulfilling prophecies, which have a general tendency to convert little effects into big effects (Gilovich 1991. p,6) which means we need to consider also whether spinach farmers might have planted and harvested more spinach in anticipation of increased spinach demand driven by Popeye.

 

To gather data with an aim to check out this story, in 2010 I wrote to every single United States Department of Agriculture station in the USA asking for any historical data they had for annual spinach production.

 

The data are presented below in Table 1. As my simple annual per cent change analysis reveals, it turns out that Texas did indeed have a 33 per cent increase in production (not consumption) in 1936 (see yellow highlighted text).

 

Was Popeye’s spinach eating the cause of that increase? Only the right statistical analysis can tell.

 

Can we tell from examining all the historical data whether this is likely?

 

Set out below is the data I collected form the USDA and briefly analysed by way of simple percentage change analysis.

 

You can see - highlighted in yellow - where the widely circulated story of the 33 per cent increase in spinach consumption that is attributed to Popeye has its roots. 

 

 Why am I seeking help from statistical experts to do this? The answer is because the task is beyond my own limited statistical knowledge and capabilities, but - perhaps most importantly - it is within my capability to know that it is a worthy task that needs doing properly, because knowledge in this area will help to inform what we currently know about effective media use in bringing about nutritional attitude change.

 

Please use the blog post set up on my blog on BestThinking.com to discuss this challenge. Click here

 

I will of course publish an attribute to whoever helps to crack the Popeye Challenge and will include it in a book I am writing on Dysology.

 

 Additional possibly relevant information:

 

1930 - 36 the dustbowl years focused on the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, and adjacent parts of New Mexico, Colorado, and Kansas. The Winter Garden area where spinach was grown would have been relatively safe.1930 Texas and Oklahoma, and adjacent parts of New Mexico, Colorado, and Kansas.

 

1930 something unusual happened in 1930 to significantly reduce spinach production in Texas - but it continued to rise in other state

 

1931 Popeye strip cartoon reveals for the first time that spinach is the secret of Popeye’s super powers.

 

1936 FDR’s New Deal introduced. Soil Conservation Act encourages farming other then wheat, rice, cattle in favour of non soil eroding crops. My have had some impact. Introduced Agricultural Adjustment Act to control supply of 7 basic crops (not including spinach) - may have led to more supply of spinach as farmers encouraged togrow more diverse crops.

 

1936 - First two reel colour movie Popeye the Sailor V Sinbad the Sailor. Either posted alongside or above as the main feature at cinemas.

 

1936 Last year of the dustbowl that began in 1931

 

1936 Largest spinach crop for all states.

 

In Texas for the 5 YEARS BEFORE Popeye even ate spinach (which was first published in a newspaper strip in 1931) (1926-1930), production increased 135 % on the previous 5 year mean (1921 -1925) acreage. Average acres production increased 51 % over the next 5 years. 

 

THE POPEYE EFFECT ON USA SPINACH PRODUCTION
50 years of acreage of Spinach Harvested 1928 - 1978 by Dr Mike Sutton (2011 all rights reserved)
       Year     Texas California Washington     Colorado

  Total

  ACRES

%change p.a.

Mean Mean Mean % %change
all states Acres Change  Acres Change  Texas
per anum Texas Texas  Texas Texas  per anum
5 yearly 5 Yearly 5 yearly 5 Yearly
Blocks Blocks Blocks Blocks

 

 

1928 25600 1,000 620 300 29448 32
1929 28650 1,400 750 400 31200     13 12
1930 25060 1,550 709 450 27769    -11 23116 135 -12
1931 27850 1,700 990 500 31040       12 25322 159 11
1932 30800 1,830 920 700 34250     10 11
1933 44000 1,690 850 770 47310     38 43
1934 35500 2,220 850 730 39300    -16 -19
1935 36000 2,300 720 840 39860       1 34830 51 1
1936 48000 2,170 830 1260 52260     31 38860 53 33
1937 46000 2,400 1120 1320 50840        -3 -4
1938 40000 2,800 1290 1450 45540    -10 -13
1939 35400 3,000 1130 1200 40730    -11 -12
1940 34400 3,200 1210 1500 40310     -1 40760 17 -3
1941 35400 3,000 1210 1700 41310      2 38240 -2 3
1942 41000 3,000 1150 2000 47150    14 16
1943 38500 3,800 1500 2800 46600     -1 -6
1944 38600 3,400 1700 3000 46700      >1 > 1
1945 36000 2,800 1650 3200 43650     -6 37900 -7 -7
1946 38000 3,000 1850 2300 45150      3 38420 0.5 6
1947 34400 3,100 1530 1900 40930     -9 -9
1948 27,000 3,100 1720 1700 33,520   -18 -22
1949 28000 3,000 600 1500 33100    -1 4
1950 22000 2,800 350 1500 26650   -19 29880 -21 -21
1951 14500 2,800 350 1200 18850   -29 25180 -34 -34
1952 15500 2,500 350 700 19050     1 7
1953 11000 2,500 330 800 14630   -23 -29
1954 11500 2,000 290 700 14490    -1 4
1955 10000 1,900 290 900 13090     -10 12500 -13
1956 10500 1,900 290 1100 13790     5 -58 11700 -53 5
1957 9300 1,800    no data 1300 12400   -10 -11
1958 9800 1,800    no data 1600 13200     6 5
1959 9300 1,800    no data 1800 12900    -2 -5
1960 8500 1,600    no data 1900 12000    -7 9480 -24 -9
1961 7600 1,400    no data 1900 10900    -9 8900 -24 -11
1962 6900 1,500    no data 2100 10500      -4 -9
1963 5800 1,600    no data 1700 9100   -13 -16
1964 6800 1,700    no data 1500 10000    10 17
1965 6900 1,700    no data 1100 9700      -3 1
1966 6500 1,600    no data 1300 9400    -3 -6
1967 6000 1,600    no data 1200 8800    -6 -8
1968 4500 1,400    no data 1100 7000  -20 -25
1969 6000 1,360    no data 1100 8460   21 33
1970 5800 1,450    no data 750 8000   -5 -3
1971 6200 1,520    no data 910 8630    8 7
1972 5100 1,650    no data 900 7650     -11 -18
1973 5600 1,700    no data 1100 8400   10 10
1974 4500 1,900    no data 1000 7400  -12 -20
1975 4100 1,900    no data 650 6650  -10 -9
1976 3300 2,150    no data 860 6310    -5 -19
1977 3400 2,800    no data 860 7060   12 3
1978 4100 3,050    no data 850 8000   13 21

 

 

 

 

Earlier historical data for total acres of harvested spinach production is available for Texas:

 

 

        Year      Texas
1918 2120
1919 4800
1920 5620
1921 8320
1922 8210
1923 9440
1924 8700
1925 14440
1926 16820
1927 19450

 

Discussion

 

Perhaps those who think Popeye was responsible for saving the spinach industry are seeing a pattern where it fails to exist. This is known as the Cum Hoc fallacy. Seeing patterns or images, or hearing significant sounds/messages, in random data is a psychological phenomenon known as pareidolia. See the Dysology Pareidolia and Pattern Recognition page for more information.

 

 

 

 

References

 

Gilovich, T. (1991) How We know what Isn’t So: The fallibility of human reasoning in everyday life. New York. The Free Press.  

 

Shermer, M. (2007) Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudoscience, Superstition and other confusions of out time. London. Souvenir Press.

 

Sutherland, S, (2007) Irrationality. London. Printer and Martin.

 

 

 

 

Popeye Statistical Challenge News Updates

 

07.01.2012 Granger test for causality suggests pattern is not random 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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